The Ming Examination Glut

c. 1600 CE — East Asia, Ming China

Today: China (Nanjing and the provincial exam halls)

Ming China's population roughly doubled while the number of government posts barely moved, and the examination system kept producing qualified men with nowhere to go. By the late Ming, the pass rate at the top level was well under one percent, and hundreds of thousands of degree-holders sat in the provinces — educated, entitled, unemployed, and increasingly bitter. Some formed political factions that paralyzed the court; some joined the rebellions that brought the dynasty down. A meritocracy that produces more merit than it can employ manufactures a class of frustrated insiders who become its critics.

Worth knowing: One candidate sat the provincial exam repeatedly from his teens into his seventies without passing. The court eventually granted honorary degrees to men who had failed often enough for long enough — a consolation prize for a life spent in the cells.

Pattern: Elite overproduction — More aspirants to elite positions are produced than there are seats; surplus elites turn to factional conflict.

Entry 163 of 240 in Precedent, a walk through the whole human story in order.