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Entry 232 of 240Economic

The Japanese Asset Bubble

1989–1991 CE/East Asia/Japan
Today Tokyo, JapanSpan Japan's Lost Decades · 1991–

Cheap credit and the conviction that Japanese land could not fall in price drove Tokyo property and the Nikkei to levels that made the arithmetic absurd — the grounds of the Imperial Palace were said to be worth more than the state of California. Banks lent against land, whose value was justified by what banks would lend. When the central bank raised rates, both collapsed. The Nikkei took thirty-four years to regain its 1989 peak. Japan spent the following decades with zombie banks, deflation, and stagnation, and the episode became the reference case for every central banker afterward.

◆ Worth knowingJapanese banks kept lending to firms that could never repay, because writing off the loans would have exposed the banks' own insolvency. Economists coined a term for the walking-dead borrowers that resulted, and it stuck: zombie companies.
◆ The mechanismMania & panic

A speculative belief detaches asset prices from fundamentals; the belief breaks and prices collapse.

Also: Debt / credit cycle · Institutional sclerosis

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